Mocking The NBA Draft

Sometimes a deep draft can be the worst thing, especially when the two best players have instant franchise changing ability. Greg Oden and Kevin Durant are expected to be the top two picks in the NBA Draft (remember when some people thought Durant was better than Oden? Apparently a Final Four appearance solidifies your stock as opposed to a second round exit), but it will be a surprise if both players end up in Portland and Seattle. The lottery put the two teams in the Pacific Northwest in the best positions in the draft, however neither player will fill the biggest needs those teams have. Despite the level of talent available, expect to see a lot of movement at the beginning (and throughout) the draft. Sometimes having the best picks put teams in an impossible position, and that looks like the case this year. So what will happen come draft day? That is impossible to know for sure, but here is how the lottery should play out.

1. Portland – Most people expect Greg Oden to help play the role that Bill Walton once played in the 1970’s, and help bring a title to the Blazers. The problem is that Portland doesn’t need a center; they need to unload contracts. The Blazers best two players are Rookie of the Year shooting guard Brandon Roy and center LaMarcus Aldridge. Throw in a decent point guard in Jarrett Jack and rapidly improving power forward Travis Outlaw and the Blazers are left needing a big small forward/athletic power forward like Kevin Durant. The Blazers also have a great player in Zach Randolph, but his injury history and huge contract make him an albatross. Moving the contract of Darius Miles also is a big priority, as he is just dead weight. Durant would be a much better fit in Portland, but could they live with themselves if they pass on Oden, even if he isn’t the best fit? Don’t be surprised to Portland trade the pick and Miles’s contract to the Celtics for the number five pick, Gerald Green, Ryan Gomes, and the expiring contract of Theo Ratliff. Prediction – Trade to #5 and pick Al Horford

2. Seattle –The Sonics need a franchise player or else they may become the Oklahoma City Sonics. Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis are the best players on the roster, but Allen is on the decline and Lewis just opted for free agency. Kevin Durant would be a perfect pick, but if he goes with the number one overall pick than the Sonics have a problem. The last three years the Sonics have selected centers in the first round, and none appear to even be capable backups. Would the Sonics select another center at the expense of the rest of their roster? Prediction – Pray that Kevin Durant doesn’t go #1 overall because there isn’t anyone else to save Seattle

3. Atlanta – The Hawks need a center and a point guard, but they are in a bad position in this draft for their needs. If they had a higher pick it would have been sent to Phoenix as part of the Joe Johnson trade, so they were lucky to get the third pick. They have the 11th pick as well as a glut of talented shooting guards and small forwards available to trade. If the Hawks keep this pick then they will be reaching for any player that fills their needs. Mike Conley would be the obvious choice, but he isn’t the third best player in the draft. If the Hawks traded this pick, the 11th pick and Josh Childress to Portland they could get back the #1 pick (and fill the center need with Greg Oden) and Zach Randolph. Randolph could then be swapped to Charlotte with a future 2nd round pick for the #8 pick (Mike Conley) and Jeff McInnis’s contract. The only hang-up is that the Hawks front office is more inept than any other in the NBA, so expect them to do nothing. Prediction – Mike Conley, at least they get the point guard they need, even if he is a reach as the #3 pick.

4. Memphis – The Grizzlies need the same thing the Hawks need, a franchise center and point guard, but neither will be available with this pick. Memphis would be smart to take Conley if he is around, or pick a big athletic player like Yi or Brandon Wright. They will probably just pick the best player available. Prediction – Yi, why not? The last foreign, outside shooting, big man they drafted has done pretty well.

5. Boston – Danny Ainge is great at finding value in the draft and can pull off some great trades. Ainge doesn’t seem to realize that he isn’t running a fantasy team, and that you can’t just put five players on the floor, the position they play matters. (If I see Paul Pierce playing center again I may be forced to find a hit man to eliminate Ainge.) Ainge would be great if Red Auerbach was still around to smack him upside the head every so often. The Celtics need a center, nothing else. Expect the Celtics to end up with any player except the person picked #5 overall. Prediction – Oden, with above referenced trade with Portland.

6. Milwaukee – The Bucks biggest need is a true center, but half of the teams in the NBA can say the same thing. Drafting any center besides Oden (not that he will be here) would be a mistake, just as forcing Andrew Bogut to be a beast inside is foolish. The Bucks’ best bet is to put the toughest power forward they can find in the lineup to take some of the physical pressure off of Bogut. Prediction – Brandan Wright, not a beast but has the size and is more physical and has more potential than Joakim Noah.

7. Minnesota – When your starting forwards lead your team in assists it is time to get a point guard. The only issue is that the next best point guard behind Conley is Acie Law, who is only a borderline lottery player at best. Kevin McHale may finally make a deal to ship away Kevin Garnett and blow up the team, or he might realize that Ricky Davis is more trouble than he is worth. If Garnett is traded than the Wolves will pick a big man, if not they get the most compete player in the draft under 6’9”. Prediction – Jeff Green, he can score, defend, pass, create his own shots, and may even be able to teach Ricky Davis what defense is.

8. Charlotte – The entire Bobcats roster is soft and injury prone, with the exception of Gerald Wallace. He just plays like a maniac (in a good way). The only player that seemed to stay healthy is Raymond Felton, and he is a decent, but not great point guard. This team needs a scorer to help take some pressure off of Emeka Okafor, Adam Morrison, Sean May, and any other warm body that is playing in the paint. Charlotte should ask their part owner if he wants to suit up sometime, I hear he has some talent. Prediction – Corey Brewer, a scorer, an athlete, and the one player Charlotte can get that can help out the most right away. The Bobcats will be lucky if he is still available, if he isn’t they should hope for Jeff Green.

9. Chicago – Remember when Ben Wallace was one tough SOB? The last time that happened was when Rasheed Wallace was around to take some of the pressure off of him on offense and defense. In Chicago Wallace had nobody inside to help him out. The Bulls need a center even if he just takes up space and puts up 11 points and 7 rebounds a game. Wallace needs the big body to help him against centers like Shaq, and Tyrus Thomas isn’t big enough to help out much. Prediction – Spencer Hawes, I shudder any time I see a white center without much offense selected this high in the draft (I had to suffer through Eric Montross and Brad Lohaus.) Hawes game is green but he is a true center, the Bulls’ biggest need.

10. Sacramento – Brad Miller got old in a hurry, going from All-Star to glorified backup in less than one season. The Kings need a center, or at least a big man that can play some center if Miller gets hurt again. Shareef Abdur-Rahim is not a center, at least not for an NBA team. The Kings would be lucks to get Hawes, but if he isn’t available than this will be the point when every mock draft could spiral out of control: there are way too many players that could be picked at this spot, but none are the right fit or warrant a spot this high in the draft. Prediction – Joakim Noah, I have had dreams of him in a Kings uniform since he was a National Champion at Florida (pretty sad dreams, I know). Jason Smith could be here but he is more of a mid teens pick, Sean Marshall is a center version of Dennis Rodman (all defense, and rebounding, no common sense, and drugs thrown in for fun), and the league seems to realize that foreign big men are no sure bet. On draft night this could be a great spot for a playoff team looking to trade up.

11. Atlanta – If the Hawks don’t end up with a point guard with their first pick than they will pick Acie Law a Nick Van Exel clone. The last thing the Hawks need is another shooting guard/small forward/undersized power forward. They need a PG or size, depending all on what they walk away with the third pick, unless they trade that pick away for magic beans. Prediction – Julian Wright, not a true big man, but at least a legit power forward. Wright really should have stayed in school for at least one more year, but the Hawks are in no rush to improve.

12. Philadelphia – The Sixers have three first round picks and could very likely move up. They have a good point guard in Andre Miller, deadly wings in Kyle Korver (who is better as a 6th man than a starter) and Andre Iguodala. Sam Dalembert finally seems to realize that if you are seven feet tall than you should be able to not only rebound but also score a basket once in a while. The Sixers need an impact power forward, but there is a large drop-off after the first batch of top PF. Prediction – Al Thornton, he might be a bit small for a power forward (6’7”) but he is a true basketball player, the kind that plays bigger than his size. If the Sixers once had a 6’4” power forward so a 6’7” PF isn’t that big of a stretch. (Please no emails telling me Charles Barkley was really 6’8”, unless you mean in width)

13. New Orleans/Oklahoma City/former Charlotte – When are the Hornets finally going to get a home? I still can’t think of them in the Western Conference, I still remember Grandmama and Zo too vividly, but I digress. They have the best young point guard in basketball, and one of the best frontcourts in basketball, assuming they all aren’t hurt at the same time. The Hornets need a scorer, especially one that can play the wing and handle the ball a bit as well. Prediction – Young, either Thaddeus or Nick. My gut says Nick Young, but Thaddeus would be a great fit if Peja is out an extended period of time (which is likely). Nick is lethal from the outside, but Thaddeus is more versatile and the more likely pick.

14. LA Clippers – This team has been less than the sum of its parts since the days of Ron Harper and Danny Manning. Elton Brand is the best power forward nobody remembers, Chris Kaman is a solid center, Sam Cassell is a great point guard when healthy, Cuttino Mobley is a solid player, Corey Maggette is talented but is a walking attitude, and Shaun Livingston was a point guard of the future until he blew out his knee. The Clippers need to finally drop some dead weight (Maggette) and add a solid small forward. Brandon Rush would have been a great fit but he decided to go back to school, and the best available players are smaller guards. Prediction – Young, the one the Hornets don’t pick. Thaddeus would be a great fit but Nick can still rebound enough to play small forward, at least part time.

And that concludes the 2007 NBA Mock Draft Lottery. One trade could destroy this entire list, or one player deciding to go back to school, or one injury. This draft is so deep and so young that teams will be flipping picks like pancakes. Depending on what teams move up or down there could be at least a half dozen guys that rise into (or fall from) the lottery. The wild card might just be the fact that the two worst front offices (Atlanta and Philly) both have multiple first round picks, and one of the best (Phoenix) also has multiple picks. This will be the type of draft that people will look back on in a decade and just scratch their heads in amazement that some players went so high and others fell so far. Expect some General managers to be fired because of this draft.